Author of study quoted by 'gun control' groups singing new tune

Last fall, Colby Goodman and Michel Marizco, of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute, released a study, "U.S. Firearms Trafficking to Mexico: New Data and Insights Illuminate Key Trends and Challenges." Ever since, advocates of "gun control" have been pointing to it as the "scholarly evidence" supporting their assertion that the Mexican drug syndicates are arming themselves at U.S. gun shops and gun shows, and that, therefore, the U.S. needs yet more draconian gun laws--the Constitution be damned.

This study must have been a welcome sight to the gun prohibitionists, who by then had received enough criticism over their wildly inflated claims of "90%," or even "95 to 100%," gradually slipping to "80% of guns recovered at Mexican crime scenes came from the U.S., that they for a while stopped even talking about percentages. The VPC's Tom Diaz went so far in retreating from the talk of high percentages that he called the entire issue of percentage "a red herring"--never mind percentages, just ban "assault weapons" anyway. Rabidly anti-gun Attorney General Eric Holder said much the same thing, as did the Brady Campaign's Paul Helmke.

Suddenly, though, this "scholarly report" comes out and says "80%":

In May 2010, for example, the Mexican government, which has received training from ATF to better identify firearms, said that of the 75,000 firearms it seized in the last three years about 80 percent, or 60,000 firearms, came from the United States.

And everyone in forcible citizen disarmament land was happy, because now they could talk percentages and numbers again. Helmke cited it:

Violence in Mexico has increased since Congress allowed the federal assault weapons ban to expire in 2004. And a study just released by the Woodrow Wilson Center and the University of San Diego matches Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence reports, which confirm that a significant number of the guns used in Mexican drug crimes come from America.

Dennis "What People?" Henigan cited it:

According to a new report, U.S. Firearms Trafficking to Mexico, by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute, of 75,000 firearms seized by the Mexican government in the last three years, about 80%, or 60,000 firearms, came from the United States.

Another Brady Campaign "study" cites it here.

Just recently, CSGV cited it, too:

@bergerjd Here's an excellent compilation of data on firearms being trafficked from U.S to #Mexico. http://tinyurl.com/5whyjqu #p2 #Texas

The only problem is, the "scholarly report's" figures are just as fanciful as all the others, as I explained here (with an account of my comment war with one of the "study's" authors, Colby Goodman) and here.

As I discussed today, though, now Mr. Goodman seems to have recanted his old story:

At the time, claims were made in the U.S. that 90 percent of guns used in crimes in Mexico came from the U.S. The statistic originated with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms and was picked up by the media and members of Congress. The ATF later massaged it to say 90 percent of the seized weapons they had been able to check came from the U.S. But the analyst who wrote the leaked memo said there was no way of verifying that.

“Claims by Mexican and U.S. officials that upwards of 90 percent of illegal recovered weapons can be traced back to the U.S. is based on an incomplete survey of confiscated weapons,” the analyst wrote.

Colby Goodman is an arms trafficking expert and security consultant in Washington. He says the information on seized guns was inconsistent.

“Duplicates, multiple duplicates or it was lacking a lot of basic information that ATF would need to trace it back to the purchaser in the United States,” Goodman said.

Well, Brady Campaign and CSGV, care to show as much integrity as Goodman, and admit your earlier arguments were based on bullshit?