Mexico: the big lie

As is being made increasingly clear, the "More than 90% of the guns used by the drug cartels originate from U.S. gun sellers" (pdf file) claim, and variations thereof, is fiction, and bad fiction, at that. That this is becoming known is, I believe, as much to David Codrea's credit as anyone's.

He really got it started Monday, with "Do 90% of Mexican 'crime guns' come from U.S.?," in which he pointed out the vast difference between the "90% of guns used by drug cartels" claim, and what government officials say under oath:

According to ATF’s Tracing Center, 90 percent of the firearms about which ATF receives information are traceable to the United States.

Not "90% of the guns used by the drug cartels," but "90 percent of firearms about which ATF receives information"--a rather huge difference, especially when one considers that Senator Kerry himself admits that information on 75% of the recovered guns are not reported to the BATFE.

Yesterday, David followed up on his Monday article with "We're being lied to about U.S. guns and Mexican cartels. Why?"--expanding on the information he brought us Monday. I nibbled around at the edges of the story, myself.

Today, he provides compelling evidence that while many of the cartels' weapons do indeed come from the U.S., many of those that do--especially the heavy ones (which are not available on the U.S. civilian market anyway)--do so under the auspices of the U.S. State Department and/or Defense Department.

We're even starting to see the lie exposed in mainstream media circles, with FOX News reporting "The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S." That article quotes Violence Policy Center "senior policy analyst" (citizen disarmament cheerleader) Tom Diaz:

But Tom Diaz, senior policy analyst at the Violence Policy Center, called the "90 percent" issue a red herring and said that it should not detract from the effort to stop gun trafficking into Mexico.

"Let's do what we can with what we know," he said. "We know that one hell of a lot of firearms come from the United States because our gun market is wide open."

A "red herring," Tom? That's funny--you didn't call the "90%" figure a "red herring" when you quoted it in "Iron River: Gun Violence and Illegal Firearms Trafficking on the U.S.-Mexico Border," (pdf file) released just two days ago, and of which you are credited as the author. From page 15:

U.S. and Mexican officials report that, based on ATF tracing data, the cartels obtain 90 percent or more of their firearms from the United States. Traces by ATF of firearms from Mexico have reportedly increased from 2,100 in 2006 to 3,300 in 2007 and 7,700 in 2008.

Nor did VPC legislative director Kirsten Rand in her testimony to Congress last month (pdf file, from page 2):

U.S. and Mexican officials report that, based on ATF tracing data, the cartels get between 90 percent and 95 percent of their firearms from the United States.

Actually, Tom, you said the very same thing--word for word--to Congress in your own testimony (pdf file, from page 4).

If the "90%" figure is a "red herring" (and I actually agree that it is--no, scratch that--I'd call it a lie), it's one that you have helped disseminate, Tom--to both the public and Congress.

The "90%" figure is 100% lie, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, BATFE Assistant Field Director for Operations William Hoover, much of the mainstream news media, the Brady Campaign, and the VPC have helped promulgate it.